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Lebanon’s new government reflects balance of power in Middle East, new US role
By Ahmed Souaiaia (Iowa City Foreign Policy Examiner)
Dec 16, 2009 - 4:28:06 AM

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After nearly six months since elections took place, Saad al-Hariri finally managed to form a unity government that received the backing of 122 votes from the 128-member parliament. According to Nabih Berri, the speaker of parliament, only one deputy voted against while another abstained and four were absent.

It should be noted that Hariri had failed to form a government earlier this summer but was asked to try a second time by President Michel Suleiman. This time, the formula was the same, but the names of the ministers were determined differently. This adjustment led to establishing a unity government consisting of 15 ministers from Hariri's coalition, 10 representing Hezbollah and its allies, and five selected by Michel Suleiman, the Lebanese president.

The selection of ministers is crucial in that it provides the opposition with a significant voice that would allow it to preserve its interests--the most important of which is the status of the arms in the hands of Hezbollah's fighters. This issue was addressed immediately in the government's first declaration where it is stated that it is the aim of "Lebanon, its government, its people, its army and its resistance" to liberate all Lebanese territory. This stipulation virtually incorporated, if not legitimized, Hezbollah's armed wing.

On its own, Lebanon is not a major player in regional or international politics. However, it is a good indicator of the mood and influence of other powers. Lebanon is a place where other countries fight their battles. Because of its ethnic and religious factions, Lebanon depends on alliances beyond its borders: the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have been backing the so-called Sunni Muslims. Syria and Iran provide Shi`ite Hezbollah and its Christian allies with continued support. The rest of the smaller religious and ethnic groups align themselves with either of these camps depending on the needs of the circumstance.

Making the case for the shifting political alliances in Lebanon, the mercurial Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze community, threatened to leave al-Hariri's coalition. He went further this week to express his willingness to publicly apologize to the Syrian leadership. Although Jumblatt is known to change his mind often, this instance must be indicative of broader trends forcing Lebanese politician to adapt to new realities.

First, it seems that the U.S. involvement in Lebanese politics is more nuanced these days than it has been in the past. This means that American involvement in Lebanon is conditioned on its ability to manage other problems such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Iranian nuclear program.

Second, Saudi Arabia is facing real challenges on its southern borders as a result of the civil war in Yemen. Saudis fear that military success by the Shi`ite Houthis could embolden its own Shi`ite minority. This fear is evidenced by the Saudi direct involvement in Yemen's war against the Yemeni rebels. For the past three weeks, daily news reports indicate that the Saudi military has been attacking the Houthis along its borders while relocating hundreds of thousands of Saudi Bedouins. The relocation of these civilians suggests that the Saudis anticipate this military conflict to last for a long time. This means that the Saudis have shifted their indirect confrontation with Iran from Lebanon to Yemen.

Third, Syria has managed to break out of its diplomatic isolation and is positioning itself as a major player in solving key problems in the region: Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon. Some European countries are now convinced of Syria's ability to influence regional politics, and for this reason the French president hosted the Syrian President, Bashar al-Asad, in the Élysée Palace last month. Moreover, Saad al-Hariri, who in the past accused Syria of complicity (if not direct involvement) in the assassination of his father Rafiq al-Hariri, has announced that he will visit Syria once a unity government is in place. When this visit takes place, al-Hariri will be the second Lebanese politician, after Michel Aoun, to visit Syria in the span of one week. There is no doubt that other leaders will follow.

The Lebanese unity government suggests that regional and international powers are either willing to work together to maintain stability in the region or that a dynamic equilibrium is in place allowing Iran and the U.S. to test the waters for a new order in the Middle East.

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