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YEARENDER: Lebanon refuses to succumb to self-destruction in 2009
By DPA
Dec 17, 2009 - 6:18:47 AM

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President Michel SleimanBeirut - For years, political stalemates in Lebanon nearly always led to violence, prompting Lebanese to believe that their politicians never succeeded in doing anything but driving the country into deadlock. In the first half of 2009, Lebanon prepared for the parliamentary election on June 7th - an election which was supposed to lead Lebanon into a new political era.

It took almost another half year for the post-election deadlock to be overcome - but in the end the country has managed to follow President Michel Suleiman's dictum that it should "refuse to succumb to self destruction."

The political race had been seen as close, between the western- backed alliance led by Saad Hariri, and the Hezbollah-led opposition.

In the end Hariri's bloc snatched 73 seats in the 128-member parliament, while the opposition got 55.

According to Lebanon's constitution, the majority has the right to name a prime minister who then attempts to form a national unity government, to close the ranks of the seemingly perpetually divided Lebanese.

In mid-June Hariri was named premier. He immediately set about trying to form a cabinet that would include all Lebanese rivals, including the Hezbollah-led opposition under Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

For almost five months, Hariri struggled to negotiate a line-up for his future government amidst hard bargaining over ministerial portfolios.

Hariri then attempted to call the opposition's bluff in September, announcing that he would step down. It worked, and after being renamed prime minister he succeeded in announcing a 30-member national unity government on November 10.

Many observers also believe that international involvement, especially a recent Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, facilitated Hariri's task the second time around.

Hariri's ruling majority is widely understood to be backed by Saudi Arabia, while the opposition led by Hezbollah is seen as being supported by Syria and Iran.

But observers believe that the new government will still face challenges in the coming months - especially in dealing with the issue of Hezbollah's formidable arsenal of weapons.

According to Shafik al-Masri, lecturer in political science at the Lebanese-American University, any wrong move by Hariri in this regard could lead the country to a new outbreak of sectarian violence similar to one that took place in May 2008.

Hezbollah militants then seized parts of the city to contest a government decision that appeared to tamper with Hezbollah's communications system.

"The government cannot move to take Hezbollah arms by force because this will definitely lead to a war in the country," said al- Masri, adding that Hezbollah's weapons remain an issue to discuss in the framework of a national dialogue.

The dialogue sessions organized by Lebanese rival factions started last year, but so far they have made no progress on a national defence strategy that would eventually integrate the Hezbollah weapons into the Lebanese army.

Calls for Hezbollah's disarmament in recent years have come from beyond Lebanon's borders too: A UN resolution that ended a bitter 2006 month-long war between Hezbollah and Israel for example called for Hezbollah's disarmament, something the group has strongly rejected.

Many political observers believe that the new cabinet could also face strife over planned political and economic reforms - especially considering that with ten ministers, Hezbollah can easily thwart any Hariri-led initiative.

Analysts believe that if Hariri tries to exert pressure, the opposition will resort to a tactic they used in 2006: withdrawing ministers from the cabinet, and plunging the country into another deep political crisis, if not a sectarian war.

Amin Amouriyeh, columnist for al-Nahar newspaper, believes Hariri is trying to demonstrate political partnership and enhance trust with his rivals before he starts addressing tough issues like security and weapons.

Hariri, 39, is the son of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, assassinated in a 2005 in suicide bomb blast in Beirut, an act blamed widely on Syria.

On March 1 an international tribunal investigating the killing of Hariri opened in The Hague, seeming to herald a new stage of accountability in the region. In May, however, the main suspects in the case - four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals - were released for lack of evidence.

But despite the historical legacy of animosity, Beirut and Damascus agreed in August to establish diplomatic relations for the first time since they each gained independence from France in the 1940s.

Hariri is expected to pay an official visit to Syria as premier in 2010, and to open a new stage of ties between Lebanon and Syria.

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YEARENDER: Lebanon refuses to succumb to self-destruction in 2009 - Dec 17, 2009 - 6:18:47 AM



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